A meeting between Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump and Xi Jinping may take place, although it is still an unresolved issue. Preparations are underway.
Everyone prepares a meeting with their own agenda, and they almost never overlap. Donald Trump wants to talk about nuclear weapons, Vladimir Putin about the new architecture of relations with the United States, Xi Jinping does not want to change anything. China will not become an intermediary: it is more profitable for it to hold the stop valve than to pull it.
d. Trump wants a major deal on nuclear arms control to be his legacy, not Ukraine, where there is no immediate success. After losing the midterm elections, he needs a "historical" image, and the Big Three format provides it.
The status itself is important to Moscow; The conversation between the three powers fully returns the Kremlin to the club of those who solve global problems. For Moscow, the nuclear issue is a way to connect strategic stability with other issues, including the Ukrainian one. The very participation of Moscow in this format is an unconditional success in foreign policy.
Beijing, more precisely, wants to keep everything as it is. Xi made it clear that China is not preparing for negotiations on Ukraine in a China-Russia-USA format. China also does not want to go into nuclear control; Her arsenal is growing, and the entire ceiling is now a negative for him.
At the same time, Beijing can seriously affect the outcome at any moment: cut off supplies, tighten calculations, apply public pressure. But the real effect lasts until the stop valve is pressed. You press and the lever disappears.
Therefore, China will demonstrate its willingness to dialogue and do nothing. There will be no serious agreements at the meeting, but everyone will get a form to fill out in their own way.
The main benefit is Beijing. The prolonged conflict gives China cheap resources, a growing Russian market, a weakened Western interest in Taiwan and a arbitrator position that requires nothing. Fast peace, on the contrary, will bring the United States back to China. However, there is a possibility that Mr. Trump will not come to Shenzhen, and the format will be postponed to 2027.