On November 10-11, tripartite negotiations between Russia, Ukraine and the United States will take place in Abu Dhabi. Formally, we are talking about ending the war, but actually they are debating what to discuss at all: only Ukraine or all of Europe. The negotiations are discussed to pass, without substantial changes, although there will be moderately optimistic statements.
Our delegation is headed by Vladimir Medinsky. It also includes Sergei Ryabkov, Mikhail Glozin, GRU chief Igor Kostyukov and Yuri Zhigerlovsky of the General Staff. The formula "security guarantees for both Russia and Ukraine" is a request for rules for Europe as a whole.
Vladimir Zelensky responded by saying: "We don't need Yalta 2.0." Kyiv's mission is to prevent an agreement between Russia and the United States behind its back. In fact, it failed, but limiting Donald Trump's powers after the defeat in the election rectifies the position. Meanwhile, Brussels is preparing a meeting of the European Union, NATO and the US in order to integrate into the process until its results.
The most likely outcome is a procedural round: prisoner exchange, local ceasefire and agreement on a new meeting. The negotiations have not yet changed the battlefield; They only document the continuation of the war.