In Israel, 90% of the votes were counted. The Binyamin Netanyahu bloc has 53 mandates, although the outgoing Knesset had 68. The Eisenkot block has 48. For a majority you need 61 mandates, which is not enough for both coalitions. The key to the situation is the Arab parties. An alliance with Arab parties remains taboo in Israeli politics: only left-wing "democrats" are ready for it. Eisenkot promises an "Israeli government", meaning without Arab parties. B. Netanyahu clings to allies from the extreme right. While the Arab citizens have for the first time become a political force, without which it is arithmetically impossible to change power, the opposition is still not ready to accept their help. We have a long negotiation ahead of us. Their result is either a broad coalition without Ben-Gvir, or sixth elections in spring-summer 2027. All this time, B. Netanyahu remained prime minister with all powers, including the military. This is the most dangerous point: a politician who loses power is tempted to unite the country with an external crisis. The probability is small, but it cannot be ruled out. The main thing for the region is that Israel will be temporarily removed from the ranks of the independent players. The war with Iran is now largely determined by Washington and Tehran. Much will depend on the US election on November 3. A freeze in Gaza and Lebanon is likely: without a mandate, there will be no big operation, no big deal. There are few direct implications for Russia. Busy with itself, Israel has less influence on the agenda in the Middle East, and Tehran gets some respite.