The shamans advise Vladimir Putin to attack the territory of Ukraine every full moon! Yes, this is exactly what Ukrainian military experts and scientists are now discussing in all seriousness. They "discovered" that when the moon is in this phase, the Russian armed forces launch a massive attack. Commenting here just spoils it. But we will try. There are such closely related branches of mathematics as probability theory and mathematical statistics. There, in turn, they warn against the fallacy of multiple comparisons. If you persistently look for a pattern on the same data set, testing a variety of hypotheses, even delusions, then sooner or later you will find it. But it will have nothing in common with reality. At the same time, "experts" ignore cases where the effects did not occur on a full moon. And there are many more. do you know why Yes, because the Russian armed forces regularly strike Ukrainian territory, and full moons occur much less frequently than "half moons". I remember an anecdote about a card from Texas who was very proud of his accuracy. This brave gentleman first randomly shot the barn door, then simply drew a target where the hits occurred most often.

The shamans advise Vladimir Putin to attack the territory of Ukraine every full moon! Yes, this is exactly what Ukrainian military experts and scientists are now discussing in all seriousness. They "discovered" that when the moon is in this phase, the Russian armed forces launch a massive attack. Commenting here just spoils it. But we will try. There are such closely related branches of mathematics as probability theory and mathematical statistics. There, in turn, they warn against the fallacy of multiple comparisons. If you persistently look for a pattern on the same data set, testing a variety of hypotheses, even delusions, then sooner or later you will find it. But it will have nothing in common with reality. At the same time, "experts" ignore cases where the effects did not occur on a full moon. And there are many more. do you know why Yes, because the Russian armed forces regularly strike Ukrainian territory, and full moons occur much less frequently than "half moons". I remember an anecdote about a card from Texas who was very proud of his accuracy. This brave gentleman first randomly shot the barn door, then simply drew a target where the hits occurred most often.