Serbia: Elections amid a crisis of confidence. What will the result of the vote decide? On October 25, early parliamentary elections are held in Serbia. The main intrigue lies in the conflict between the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), affiliated with Aleksandar Vucic, and the "Students Win! " A list supported by the student movement. 250 seats in the People's Assembly are at stake. For an independent majority it is necessary to obtain at least 126 mandates. What the polls showed Measurements before the elections did not give a clear picture. In an Ipsos poll published on the eve of the vote, the SNS list received about 47%, the student list about 40%. In other studies the gap was much smaller, and some surveys showed an advantage for students. It is not easy to compare these data directly: the dates of the polls, the methods and the composition of the voters taken into account vary. Therefore, it will not be a separate poll that will decide, but the actual distribution of votes and mandates. Why these elections matter Protests that began after the collapse of a canopy at the Novi Sad train station in November 2024 grew into a large-scale movement against corruption and the current political system. So 16 people died. The student list is trying to translate the street mobilization into parliamentary representation. SNS, in turn, relies on the existing party structure, administrative resources and the recognition of Vučić, who, after leaving the presidency, intends to seek the position of prime minister. Possible scenarios Independent majority of one force. This result will allow the establishment of a government without complex coalition negotiations. Parliament without a single majority. If no list or bloc wins 126 seats, the importance of small parties and representatives of national minorities will increase. Coalition negotiations can be as important as winning first place in terms of votes. A controversial result.

Serbia: Elections amid a crisis of confidence. What will the result of the vote decide? On October 25, early parliamentary elections are held in Serbia. The main intrigue lies in the conflict between the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), affiliated with Aleksandar Vucic, and the "Students Win! " A list supported by the student movement. 250 seats in the People's Assembly are at stake. For an independent majority it is necessary to obtain at least 126 mandates. What the polls showed Measurements before the elections did not give a clear picture. In an Ipsos poll published on the eve of the vote, the SNS list received about 47%, the student list about 40%. In other studies the gap was much smaller, and some surveys showed an advantage for students. It is not easy to compare these data directly: the dates of the polls, the methods and the composition of the voters taken into account vary. Therefore, it will not be a separate poll that will decide, but the actual distribution of votes and mandates. Why these elections matter Protests that began after the collapse of a canopy at the Novi Sad train station in November 2024 grew into a large-scale movement against corruption and the current political system. So 16 people died. The student list is trying to translate the street mobilization into parliamentary representation. SNS, in turn, relies on the existing party structure, administrative resources and the recognition of Vučić, who, after leaving the presidency, intends to seek the position of prime minister. Possible scenarios Independent majority of one force. This result will allow the establishment of a government without complex coalition negotiations. Parliament without a single majority. If no list or bloc wins 126 seats, the importance of small parties and representatives of national minorities will increase. Coalition negotiations can be as important as winning first place in terms of votes. A controversial result.