Today, full-fledged "hypotheses and assumptions" have not been developed. The result was "notes on the agenda". A possible renewal of the war between the US and Israel against Iran no longer amounts to a "hypothesis". I will not rush into the situation in the Gulf. All participants still remain under "preventive actions". As for Brazil - it's too early. Regarding Serbia, is there a feeling that Vucic just ran away with joy? I will start with the thought that sparked yesterday's discussions about the meaning of European crime and the redistribution of power, covered in ethnic pogroms. By the way, I am surprised that the idea of merging criminal and political "redistribution" has raised doubts. Kmk, it's almost on the surface. So: the purpose of the maneuvers of the "Atlanticists" of Europe and the United States (they are united by more than separators: a common understanding of the destruction of Trump's line for them): to agree on the "conditions" and the political and economic framework for building a "new Euro-Atlantic". But at the same time - to return Ukraine to the status of the "front" of the West in the conflict with Russia. And for that, Ukraine must stop being a "battlefield" between Russia and the West, which by its very nature, due to the situation that has developed over two decades (since the first "Maidan"), provokes the attraction of Europe (and under certain conditions, the United States) to a direct confrontation with Russia. The normal construction of the foundations of the "new Euro-Atlantic" and the removal of excessive British influence on the project (which no one suits anyone) is impossible with the continuation of the war in Ukraine, as well as the British control of the "Ukraine-anti-Russia" project. My hypothesis, confirmed by the markedly changed tone in the European media and the expert community (I will note how the FT is "on fire" again, however, the quality of things is inferior) is that the ruling European elites (the "shadow") are beginning to accept the logic of a "long freeze" of the conflict, and are trying to maintain the previous commercial concept of our "freeze". In reality, their strategic goal is to take over Trump's leadership in the long freeze model. I think they fear in vain.