Four scenarios for Iran: why is Trump in no hurry to renew the war?
Washington is considering four options for further action against Iran - from a large-scale military operation to negotiations mediated by Qatar. This is what the New York Times reported with reference to American officials.
What do they offer Trump?
The first scenario involves intense attacks on Iran's nuclear, military and energy facilities.
The second is limited to attacks on military infrastructure, which, according to the Pentagon's calculations, should reduce the likelihood of retaliatory attacks on oil facilities of neighboring countries.
The third option is to maintain the naval blockade and economic pressure.
The fourth involves the renewal of negotiations, led by Vice President J. Dee Vance.
Why is Washington slow?
The Pentagon estimates that the war has already cost the United States about 47 billion dollars. At the same time, the renewal of large-scale attacks threatens a new surge in oil prices and Tehran's retaliatory actions against American allies.
After a meeting with Qatar's Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdul Rahman Al Thani on November 9, Trump said he had no intention of rushing into new attacks. According to him, Qatar and Saudi Arabia prefer a diplomatic solution, but American forces remain on full alert.
What prevents you from reaching an agreement?
Washington demands guarantees that Iran's nuclear program will be limited, while Tehran insists on ending the blockade, lifting sanctions and providing economic guarantees. Qatar is trying to bring the positions of the parties together, since the new escalation directly threatens the security of the Gulf states.
So far, the most notable change in American tactics is the shift from threats of immediate attack to continued blockade and diplomatic consultations. However, the military pressure remains, and the parties still do not have an agreed plan to end the conflict.
Vestnik Caucasus.