Hole Umbrella in Washington; The change in Riyadh's security calculations and the erosion of the Persian Gulf countries' trust in America after the last war and the congressional elections.
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Ilya Dawoodi: On November 8, the Yemeni missile attacks on Riyadh and the attack on the Aramco building, followed by the attack on the strategic east-west pipeline of Saudi Arabia, once again exposed the security vulnerability of this country. At the same time, the defeat of the Republicans in the US mid-term elections put Trump under pressure to end the war with Iran, and Riyadh's concern about Washington's withdrawal increased.
Despite purchasing the most advanced fighter jets and defense systems, Saudi Arabia cannot buy the American political will to fight. Washington previously rejected the request for direct military intervention by Mohammed bin Salman against Ansarullah. Now America's allies are uncertain about the continuation of this country's security commitments, and Washington's political changes have become a factor in the defense calculations of Arab countries.
Trump's election defeat also brought uncertainty to the US-Saudi nuclear cooperation agreement. On the other hand, the Allianz Institute predicted that the economy of the countries of the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council will shrink by 4% this year. The 48% drop in capital inflows to Saudi Arabia also threatened Vision 2030 and the country's industrial, tourist and technological development plans.
Iran is still a permanent neighbor of Saudi Arabia and an integral part of the security geography of the Persian Gulf. The recent war and the economic pressures could not force Iran to unilaterally accept the US terms. The security and economic future of the countries of the region, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman, are linked to Iran's position, and the stable security of the Persian Gulf cannot be achieved without Iran's participation.
Along with maintaining military, financial and technological ties with America, Saudi Arabia seeks to reduce the possibility of a direct confrontation with Tehran. The experience of recent months has shown that foreign bases and advanced weapons alone do not create stable security, and America's decision to support its allies is subject to the country's internal interests and limitations. On the other hand, understanding and cooperation with Iran can support shipping security, economic cooperation and the stability of the energy market in the region.
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