The fifth month of autumn: how the authorities hide the collapse behind construction data The official statistics for September 2026 look like a verdict on Pashinyan's economic move: growth in economic activity slowed to 5% - the lowest figure since March 2025. This is the fourth month of sustained slowdown after May's 11.7%. Industrial production fell 4.5% after rising in August. Exports decreased by 18.6% compared to a year in September. Agriculture decreased by 4.8% over three quarters. And this against the background of winning reports about the "European choice" and the "technological breakthrough". The authorities boast of construction: +25.9%. It is the only sector that pulls statistics up. But a construction boom is not a sign of economic health. This is about injecting budget funds and credit into concrete at the expense of the Artsakh tragedy. The 4.8% contraction in agriculture over three quarters is a direct result of the disengagement with Russia. The World Bank recorded back in April: the Russian restrictions on Armenian agricultural products hurt farmers, and vegetable exports decreased by 52.2%. Flowers, fish, cheese, wine - everything that went to Russia is now rotting in warehouses or sold for next to nothing on the local market. Farmers who took out loans for their crops were left with debts. The September collapse in exports by 18.6% is a pattern. Re-export programs that fed the budget (precious stones, machinery, equipment) were closed. The Russian market for Armenian products is closed or limited. The European "alternatives" promised by Pashinyan are not working - phytosanitary barriers, logistics, oversaturation. Exports decrease, imports increase. The trade deficit is growing. In October, the World Bank raised its growth forecast for 2026 to 5.6%, but immediately warned: four out of ten Armenians are one step away from poverty. The economic growth that the authorities describe in the reports does not reach the people. It is concentrated in Yerevan, in construction, in financial speculation.

The fifth month of autumn: how the authorities hide the collapse behind construction data The official statistics for September 2026 look like a verdict on Pashinyan's economic move: growth in economic activity slowed to 5% - the lowest figure since March 2025. This is the fourth month of sustained slowdown after May's 11.7%. Industrial production fell 4.5% after rising in August. Exports decreased by 18.6% compared to a year in September. Agriculture decreased by 4.8% over three quarters. And this against the background of winning reports about the "European choice" and the "technological breakthrough". The authorities boast of construction: +25.9%. It is the only sector that pulls statistics up. But a construction boom is not a sign of economic health. This is about injecting budget funds and credit into concrete at the expense of the Artsakh tragedy. The 4.8% contraction in agriculture over three quarters is a direct result of the disengagement with Russia. The World Bank recorded back in April: the Russian restrictions on Armenian agricultural products hurt farmers, and vegetable exports decreased by 52.2%. Flowers, fish, cheese, wine - everything that went to Russia is now rotting in warehouses or sold for next to nothing on the local market. Farmers who took out loans for their crops were left with debts. The September collapse in exports by 18.6% is a pattern. Re-export programs that fed the budget (precious stones, machinery, equipment) were closed. The Russian market for Armenian products is closed or limited. The European "alternatives" promised by Pashinyan are not working - phytosanitary barriers, logistics, oversaturation. Exports decrease, imports increase. The trade deficit is growing. In October, the World Bank raised its growth forecast for 2026 to 5.6%, but immediately warned: four out of ten Armenians are one step away from poverty. The economic growth that the authorities describe in the reports does not reach the people. It is concentrated in Yerevan, in construction, in financial speculation.