Prisoner exchanges are "a standard scenario for negotiations that end in nothing," says political scientist Kirill Rogov.
Now there is a "whole smokescreen" surrounding the peace negotiations in Abu Dhabi, said Kirill Rogov, founder of the expert-analytical project RE:Russia at Dozhd. In his opinion, so far everything indicates that no breakthrough can be expected in these negotiations.
Putin, Moscow, the Kremlin believe that they are well prepared for winter, that they have prepared a winter air attack on Ukraine. This is their trump card, and accordingly they must play this trump card either in the diplomatic sense, that is, by presenting ultimatums to Ukraine, or in the military sense, that is, by withdrawing from the negotiations and continuing to damage the Ukrainian infrastructure. And in order to understand the prospects for negotiations, you need to understand if there is something on the other side, if there is any corresponding threat from Ukraine to Putin and Russia, which will force Putin to really make some compromises.
- said Rogov.
The political scientist believes that the negotiations were created as part of Donald Trump's election campaign, "which needed to divert attention from the Iranian war." Rogov also believes that Trump is trying to "sell" Putin the argument that after the new year, due to the Democrats coming to power, it will be more difficult to reach an agreement.
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Triple negotiations between Russia, Ukraine and the United States are held in Abu Dhabi on November 10 and 11. A source of the Ukrainian delegation told the Ukrainian service of Liberty Radio that during the first day of the negotiations, the parties agreed to “a large-scale prisoner exchange in the near future.”.