Polar vortex versus El Nino: Russians will feel the effects of the climate battle this winter.
Considering the strong El Niño, the North Eurasian Climate Center - with which the Hydrometeorological Center also cooperates - made a forecast until March 2027. If the calculations are to be believed, most of Russia in the coming months will be warmer than expected according to climate standards. And warmer than last winter. At the same time as sudden temperature changes. An exception is the Far East, where the coming winter is expected to be more severe than the previous winter. And with many snow storms.
However, El Niño is not the only force affecting the Earth's climate. A polar vortex rotates over the North Pole - a belt of strong winds that compresses cold Arctic air, keeping it near the North Pole, explained Mikhail Lius, a leading expert at the Phobos Weather Center. - The polar vortex is located in the stratosphere, at an altitude of 10 - 40 km, and can play an important role in shaping the winter weather conditions in the Northern Hemisphere. In 2026, it collapsed earlier than ever. In this situation, polar vortex winds weaken and change direction, and arctic air may move south in the coming days. This can trigger a sharp cooling in the Northern Hemisphere.
However, there is also a force of opposite sign in the form of an unprecedentedly strong El Niño.
Which phenomenon do you think will "win" this coming winter?
- El Nino (will be warmer).
- Polar vortex (waiting for colder weather).