The International Monetary Fund warns that oil prices could rise to $130 a barrel in 2027 if the war in West Asia continues.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that oil prices could climb to $130 a barrel in 2027 if the war in West Asia continues to disrupt energy production and trade.
During the presentation of the International Monetary Fund's regional economic outlook, Roberto Cardarelli, deputy director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department, said that a protracted war could reduce global oil production by an additional four million barrels per day.
In its baseline scenario, which assumes the war eases and Gulf energy supplies gradually normalize, the International Monetary Fund forecasts average oil prices of $96 a barrel in 2026 and $86 in 2027.
Cardarelli warned that prolonged supply disruptions would have serious consequences for regional and global economies, particularly oil-importing countries facing higher energy costs and inflation that could be one percentage point above baseline forecasts.
He also outlined an alternative risk: A major correction in the US AI sector could weaken global demand and send oil prices 30% below baseline forecasts, hurting oil-exporting economies while providing some relief to importers.