Let's go back to the US elections. Right now, prediction markets give Democrats a solid majority in the House and a good chance at a Senate majority. Generally, all polls among Americans favor the Democratic Party. But this is not because the Democratic Party is so good, it's because the Republican Party, especially Trump, is so bad. And also the classic voter disappointment in the government, whatever it may be. Because almost always pre-election promises are not kept. In fact, with Trump and the Republicans, it's a unique situation, because tricking innocent voters this way takes the talent of a true con artist (and a simple-minded audience). There is always a chance that polls or predictions won't come true. For example, many compare this to Trump's presidential election, when his voters were simply ashamed to talk about who they were voting for. But I have a somewhat different opinion, because this time it's not about Trump, but about parties and personalities. It's unlikely anyone would be very ashamed to say they are voting for a candidate from the party they've supported all their lives. I also want to add that although this can be called a protest vote due to the unpopularity of the Democratic Party in general, it's only partly because some candidates from the Democratic Party are not bad, some are even brilliant and give a good fight to Republican budgets. And the budgets in this election are a record. Unfortunately, Republicans and Trump are raising huge donations from corporate donors and tech moguls. Musk officially donated only about $400 million to the Republican Party for the election campaign, half of that to the state of Texas alone. But Democrats are raising record campaign donations, mostly from individual donors, meaning people who want change. There is also a risk that these polls don't take into account rural areas where Trump's supposed voter sits, and this might also be an exaggeration.

Let's go back to the US elections. Right now, prediction markets give Democrats a solid majority in the House and a good chance at a Senate majority. Generally, all polls among Americans favor the Democratic Party. But this is not because the Democratic Party is so good, it's because the Republican Party, especially Trump, is so bad. And also the classic voter disappointment in the government, whatever it may be. Because almost always pre-election promises are not kept. In fact, with Trump and the Republicans, it's a unique situation, because tricking innocent voters this way takes the talent of a true con artist (and a simple-minded audience). There is always a chance that polls or predictions won't come true. For example, many compare this to Trump's presidential election, when his voters were simply ashamed to talk about who they were voting for. But I have a somewhat different opinion, because this time it's not about Trump, but about parties and personalities. It's unlikely anyone would be very ashamed to say they are voting for a candidate from the party they've supported all their lives. I also want to add that although this can be called a protest vote due to the unpopularity of the Democratic Party in general, it's only partly because some candidates from the Democratic Party are not bad, some are even brilliant and give a good fight to Republican budgets. And the budgets in this election are a record. Unfortunately, Republicans and Trump are raising huge donations from corporate donors and tech moguls. Musk officially donated only about $400 million to the Republican Party for the election campaign, half of that to the state of Texas alone. But Democrats are raising record campaign donations, mostly from individual donors, meaning people who want change. There is also a risk that these polls don't take into account rural areas where Trump's supposed voter sits, and this might also be an exaggeration.