🔴 Trita Farsi: Trump's defeat in the elections and a possible failure in the negotiations in Doha increase the risk of another war with Iran.
Trita Farsi, a foreign policy analyst, warned in a letter to the analytical base "Responsible Statecraft" that the defeat of the Republicans in the mid-term elections in the US, together with the possibility of failure in the negotiations in Doha, could increase the pressure on Donald Trump to renew military strikes against Iran in the coming weeks.
Farsi emphasizes that this situation does not necessarily mean Trump's decision to start the war again, but it may change the balance of political pressure in favor of currents that support military action.
According to him, before the elections, pressure was put on Trump to reach an agreement with Iran in order to reduce the economic consequences of the war, especially the increase in fuel prices and its effect on Republican votes. With the end of the elections, some of this pressure has subsided.
The first factor that increases the risk of war is the limitation of political opportunity for supporters of military action. Farsi believes that the currents that support the war in Israel and in Washington will consider the two months remaining until the start of the new Congress as an opportunity to encourage Trump to renew the attacks.
According to him, with the control of the Congress by the Democrats in January, it will be possible to monitor the war budget more and to impose restrictions on the actions of the government. Also, the expiration of the current US budget on December 11 could create an earlier opportunity to propose financial restrictions against the continuation of the war.
The second factor is Trump's personal motives. Parsi believes that the dissatisfaction of the American president with the consequences of the war and the electoral defeat of the Republicans may affect his calculations and strengthen the desire to take retaliatory actions.
In the end, this analyst warns that if the negotiations in Doha do not make significant progress in the coming days, the simultaneous pressure of pro-war currents, the reduction of electoral restrictions and the approaching start of the new Congress could increase the risk of worsening the conflict with Iran.