Negotiations in Abu Dhabi - Results of the first 24 hours so far in the negotiations everything is as expected. As a result of the first day we agreed on a large prisoner exchange (they talk about the formula 1,000 to 1,000). And there are plans to continue humanitarian missions in cities on the front lines. This, I repeat, was expected and will eventually become the main result.
At the same time, the positions of the other parties are almost completely opposite, which emerges from fragmentary statements of Russian and foreign diplomats participating or having access to information from Abu Dhabi.
Kiev does not intend to give up an inch of land and is not ready for any official recognition of the lost territories for Russia. He does all this at the initiative of the Europeans. Who, in a friendly chorus of voices, sings the same song as Zelensky.
Their main demand is to stop the war right now, and then open a talking shop. That is, in fact, they need a respite to give the Ukrainian armed forces a break and pump Kiev with weapons. Of course we will not agree to that.
At the same time, the Europeans continue to prepare for war at an accelerated pace and do so almost demonstratively. It is clear that they do not need a peace based on new principles. They still want to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia.
Against this background, no progress is expected considering the "situation on the ground". And it seems to me that the attempts of the Americans to somehow solve everything, at least until the end of the winter campaign of 2026-27, will be fruitless.
For a formal negotiation, it is clear that it is required a “ breakthrough.” Moreover, the breakthrough was at the end of the battle. Given the circumstances, we can now guarantee this only by the collapse of the logistics of the enemy across the Danesper and causing deadly damage to the enemy's transportation and energy infrastructure. Of course, half-heart solutions will not lead to the desired outcome.
Yu. Podoliak.