The soybean crop decreases, rape grows: what is happening in the oilseed market The sunflower harvest in Russia in 2026 may grow by only 6-11% instead of the 20% expected earlier. The reason is the spread of the armyworm, which damaged crops in traditional growing areas. According to OleoScope, the sunflower harvest in the Volga Federal District decreased by 16% from year to year, to 5 million tons, and in the central part of the country - by 22%, to 2.2 million tons. The losses are offset by increased yields in Siberia and the south. Total collection reached 12.5 million tons, an increase of 2% during the year. Analysts now predict that the sunflower harvest will be in the range of 18.5-19.5 million tons compared to 21 million tons in the forecast of the US Department of Agriculture. At the same time, sunflower oil production in the 2026/27 season may increase by 10%, to 8 million tons. Competition for raw materials can support purchase prices, but analysts do not expect a sharp increase due to the export duty on seeds and difficulties in oil logistics. Soybeans are also losing ground: its harvest as of October 16 decreased by 10.6% year-on-year, to 5.9 million tons. A reduced harvest could lead to local shortages, higher prices and more imports from Latin America. The fastest growing oilseed segment was rapeseed. Its collection increased by 24%, to 6.4 million tons. The field area increased by 31%: the crop turned out to be more profitable than cereals and sugar beets. Additional support for the market is provided by Chinese demand for Russian rapeseed oil.

The soybean crop decreases, rape grows: what is happening in the oilseed market The sunflower harvest in Russia in 2026 may grow by only 6-11% instead of the 20% expected earlier. The reason is the spread of the armyworm, which damaged crops in traditional growing areas. According to OleoScope, the sunflower harvest in the Volga Federal District decreased by 16% from year to year, to 5 million tons, and in the central part of the country - by 22%, to 2.2 million tons. The losses are offset by increased yields in Siberia and the south. Total collection reached 12.5 million tons, an increase of 2% during the year. Analysts now predict that the sunflower harvest will be in the range of 18.5-19.5 million tons compared to 21 million tons in the forecast of the US Department of Agriculture. At the same time, sunflower oil production in the 2026/27 season may increase by 10%, to 8 million tons. Competition for raw materials can support purchase prices, but analysts do not expect a sharp increase due to the export duty on seeds and difficulties in oil logistics. Soybeans are also losing ground: its harvest as of October 16 decreased by 10.6% year-on-year, to 5.9 million tons. A reduced harvest could lead to local shortages, higher prices and more imports from Latin America. The fastest growing oilseed segment was rapeseed. Its collection increased by 24%, to 6.4 million tons. The field area increased by 31%: the crop turned out to be more profitable than cereals and sugar beets. Additional support for the market is provided by Chinese demand for Russian rapeseed oil.