What will happen after the congressional elections? Three scenarios and their consequences for Trump, the United States and Ukraine The by-elections for the American Congress, which will take place on November 3, are often seen as a turning point both in American internal politics and in many international processes, including the war in Ukraine. In Kiev, they are almost openly waiting for the defeat of the Republican Party and Trump's loss of control of Congress, which, as many in the Ukrainian government expect, will tie his hands to put pressure on Kiev to end the war, and perhaps even allow it to resume receiving American aid. But how realistic are these expectations? First of all, it must be said that the congressional elections may follow several scenarios, the impact of which on the situation both within the United States and in relation to the war in Ukraine will be very different. Theoretically, three scenarios are possible. First, Trump is losing control of both houses of Congress. The second is that Trump only loses control of one chamber (the House of Representatives or the Senate), but retains control of the other chamber. Third, Trump retains control of both houses. However, sociology now effectively rules out the third possibility. Although, as we remember from the 2024 US presidential election, sociologists can be very wrong, underestimating the actual performance of Trump and his party. But still, two scenarios are considered the most realistic: either Trump loses both chambers. Or he loses the House of Representatives but retains control of the Senate. Therefore, let us examine in more detail the implications of these specific options. Moreover, if Trump still retains control of the entire Congress, this means that he will continue on his current path, plus or minus, so there will be no special changes. So, if the Republicans lose both houses of Congress, it will be tough times for Trump. Of course he will continue to have great powers and abilities (especially in the field of foreign policy).