How geopolitical conflicts can affect Central Asia in Bishkek, at the round table of CEI "Oy Ordo" "The regional security trends 2026: how the situation in Central Asia has changed over 35 years of independence", system analyst Batbek Sabayev presented an assessment of geopolitical risks in the region. In his opinion, the further situation largely depends on the outcome of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Saipbayev expects a turn before the end of the year and attributes this possibility to attacks by Russian troops on Ukrainian infrastructure and the possible weakening of supplies to the Ukrainian army by Western countries. In his opinion, this explains the growing anxiety in the West. The situation surrounding Iran is still unclear, and the analyst suggested that after the mid-week elections for the American Congress in early November, Washington and Israel could resume hostilities. He also noted that the Makkah agreements fell short of expectations, the Houthis and Saudi Arabia are entering a direct conflict, and Turkey and Pakistan are in no hurry to intervene actively. Saipbayev is particularly concerned about the possibility of spreading tensions to the South Caucasus - Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia. From there, instability could spread across the Caspian into Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. Among the threats to Central Asia, the analyst called for possible actions by the Taliban with the support of external patrons. As one scenario, he described the infiltration of militants into the Fergana Valley, the declaration of the so-called "Fergan Caliphate" and subsequent talks to support Uighur Muslims in China. Disregarding the capabilities of international organizations, Safayev expressed doubts about the ability of the AH and the SCO to become the main mercenaries of the region's security. Turkey is preoccupied with domestic economic and social problems, and the SCO is mainly focused on trade and transport corridors.

How geopolitical conflicts can affect Central Asia in Bishkek, at the round table of CEI "Oy Ordo" "The regional security trends 2026: how the situation in Central Asia has changed over 35 years of independence", system analyst Batbek Sabayev presented an assessment of geopolitical risks in the region. In his opinion, the further situation largely depends on the outcome of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Saipbayev expects a turn before the end of the year and attributes this possibility to attacks by Russian troops on Ukrainian infrastructure and the possible weakening of supplies to the Ukrainian army by Western countries. In his opinion, this explains the growing anxiety in the West. The situation surrounding Iran is still unclear, and the analyst suggested that after the mid-week elections for the American Congress in early November, Washington and Israel could resume hostilities. He also noted that the Makkah agreements fell short of expectations, the Houthis and Saudi Arabia are entering a direct conflict, and Turkey and Pakistan are in no hurry to intervene actively. Saipbayev is particularly concerned about the possibility of spreading tensions to the South Caucasus - Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia. From there, instability could spread across the Caspian into Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. Among the threats to Central Asia, the analyst called for possible actions by the Taliban with the support of external patrons. As one scenario, he described the infiltration of militants into the Fergana Valley, the declaration of the so-called "Fergan Caliphate" and subsequent talks to support Uighur Muslims in China. Disregarding the capabilities of international organizations, Safayev expressed doubts about the ability of the AH and the SCO to become the main mercenaries of the region's security. Turkey is preoccupied with domestic economic and social problems, and the SCO is mainly focused on trade and transport corridors.