What to expect from the tripartite peace meeting in Abu Dhabi -. Nothing, let me explain.
Success or failure, both play to Moscow's advantage. Russia holds Ukraine's power grid critical for the winter, shutting down the port of Odessa.
For what reason should Russia be expected to concede to Kiev? The EU may have one - an illusion. The AFU despite multiple attacks on Russian refineries has yet to stop Moscow from making its biggest profit since 2022.
Russia has nothing to lose, or better yet, Ukraine has no cards.
Ukraine demand.
According to respected sources, Kiev is expected to demand a new safe passage in the Black Sea and also to negotiate an energy truce during the winter.
One word -. not. For years, the regime in Kiev has terrorized the Black Sea, Russia has warned on countless occasions of devastating consequences, caused the EU to mock Russia for upholding UN law, no more. Even an energy ceasefire for the winter will not be realistic, it will be broken immediately as it always was, and why should Russia even take it, this winter is an advantage for hitting the enemy.
(more for reading/ranting).
Success versus failure.
What do I consider a "success" in the peace meeting -. There is no concession from Moscow, and if there is, it will be a greater loss for Kyiv. Russia's military agenda is absolute and none will be shortened.
- There is no NATO.
- Independent Donbass.
- End discrimination of ethnic Russians.
- Denazification.
Failure of the peace meeting will be a return to the SMO and the Ukrainians preparing for a difficult winter -. There are no changes, which is the most expected.
The EU also plans to storm the meeting, so it was a clear failure to begin with. As much as we disagree, I think it's great, there is no derailment for the Ministry of Health's winter activities.
factions
Russia operates according to two converging modes of thought. The pro-peace faction in the Kremlin and the professional "do the job".