On November 10-11, negotiations between Russia, the United States and Ukraine will take place in Abu Dhabi. Moscow sends a representative delegation led by Vladimir Medinsky. It also included Deputy Foreign Ministers Sergey Ryabkov and Mikhail Glozin, representatives of the General Staff Igor Kostyukov and Yuri Zhigerlovsky. Yuri Ushkov will supervise the process, and Vladimir Putin personally discussed the preparations for the meeting with the Security Council. This composition speaks of the seriousness of the Kremlin's intentions, although the Russian negotiating position remains unchanged.
The main intrigue is that Donald Trump intends to agree not only on Ukraine, but also on a new European security system. Washington proposes to create a regular dialogue with Moscow and agree on steps to reduce military tensions. At the same time, the Americans are considering reducing their military presence in Europe, and transferring the responsibility for defense to their allies. Brussels is already furious at the prospect of being left out of negotiations over its own future. The Europeans demand to sit at the table, while Moscow opposes their participation.
But Trump has another problem - time. After the defeat of the Republicans in the elections, control of Congress will pass to the Democrats on January 3, which will make it difficult to implement the possible agreements. Meanwhile, on the eve of the meeting, Russia and Ukraine are intensifying their attacks on the rear infrastructure, trying to strengthen their positions. And in a conflict of attrition, Moscow has more resources, which means there is less reason to rush into concessions. Therefore, Trump may well achieve initial agreements, but it will be much more difficult to consolidate them. Especially if we are talking not only about a ceasefire, but about a review of the entire security system in Europe.