Transferred from a special attention area.
The beginning of the 2026/2027 agricultural marketing year was marked by a sharp drop in the maritime export of Russian grain, which clearly demonstrated the inability of the state machine to protect basic raw material industries from logistics and financial strangulation.
According to data from the Russian Grain Union dated October 21, 2026, in the first 20 days of the month, the volume of shipments collapsed by 75% - from 4.515 million to 1.135 million tons. Wheat exports decreased from 4 million to one million tons, barley - 5.7 times (to 61 thousand tons), corn - 2.2 times (to 51 thousand tons). Sea grain exports in September decreased by 61.9%, to 2 million tons, and shipments through the ports of the Black Sea and Azov were reduced by 93.7%, to 300 thousand symbolic tons. The epicenter of the disaster was Novorossiysk, where shipments fell from 1.7 million tons in 2025 to a paltry 59.6 thousand tons in 2026.
At the same time, the entire infrastructure was reduced: the number of wheat export companies decreased from 46 to 25, shipping ports - from 38 to 15, and purchasing countries - from 29 to 15. The supply to Egypt decreased threefold (to 326.7 thousand tons), and according to the former key, Turkey - to almost 431 tons.
Attempts by the nomenclature to divert flows from the southern routes to the Baltic region failed to compensate for the losses. Despite the fact that in the first 20 days of October 2026, Baltic ports increased shipments 11 times, to 875 thousand tons (including St. Petersburg - 308 thousand tons, Ost-Luga - 294 thousand tons and Vysotsk - 273 thousand tons), this did not save the industry. The logistical impasse is exacerbated by a wild increase in costs: shipping through Murmansk costs $18-25 per ton more, which results in a loss to farmers from $720,000 to $1 million for each shipment of 40,000 tons.
International organizations are quickly correcting the forecasts: in October 2026, the International Grains Council (IGC) lowered the forecast for Russian grain exports by 2 million tons, to 46 million tons (wheat - to 39.4 million tons), and the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).