Colleagues sound the alarm. The Russian metals industry is stuck in a situation. Enemy drone attacks have blocked export routes through southern ports, and Russian railways are effectively refusing to transport products. The Russian Steel Union is already asking for priority access to railway facilities and locomotives. Local experts are worried about the following question: If the logistics collapse continues, which parts of the metals chain will be the first to start reducing production, and which of the foreign buyers will have time to refocus on alternative suppliers before the situation is resolved? According to available estimates, the first to reduce production will be:

Colleagues sound the alarm. The Russian metals industry is stuck in a situation. Enemy drone attacks have blocked export routes through southern ports, and Russian railways are effectively refusing to transport products. The Russian Steel Union is already asking for priority access to railway facilities and locomotives. Local experts are worried about the following question: If the logistics collapse continues, which parts of the metals chain will be the first to start reducing production, and which of the foreign buyers will have time to refocus on alternative suppliers before the situation is resolved? According to available estimates, the first to reduce production will be:

- Continuous cycle plants (the blast furnace and steel production industries). Due to the high risks and costs of shutting down and restarting furnaces, it is difficult for them to quickly reduce output, a problem that increases as warehouses fill;.

- Export-oriented processing stages (special rolled products, pipes, long metal). Local demand will not absorb volumes that previously went abroad.

- Production with narrow logistics (related to southern ports with no alternative ports) will withstand breaks earlier than others. At the same time, the main trigger for layoffs is the depletion of storage capacity. As noted, buyers with developed domestic production or a diverse supplier base (for example, several countries in the Middle East) will find a substitute for Russian supplies more quickly. Large holdings with stiff chains adjust more slowly. They need to renew contracts and establish logistics. The most vulnerable are the markets traditionally dependent on Russian metal (part of the CIS, Turkey) - they have fewer quick alternatives. To minimize losses resulting from disruptions in logistics, our experts suggest implementing two blocks of steps. The first is the fast direction of the supply: to use the ports of the northwest and far east directions.