Sberbank sees a significant deterioration in loans in the business sector; The situation will continue into 2027.
The head of the bank, Hagerman Graf, spoke about this during the investor's day. RBC Investments monitored the broadcast.
"We see a significant deterioration in the corporate sector in the second half of the year, and this trend will extend into 2027. Geopolitical situation is so complex - you see certain industries being hit every day. It may not be critical, but nevertheless, organizations are constantly forced to spend resources to restore some of their production capabilities. We do not see an 8% increase in this tax burden and an 8% increase together. Every way indicates that we have bright prospects.
According to him, against this background, Saber proactively created additional reserves, for example in the area of residential real estate financing, offline trade, coal and wood processing. "We enter 2027 with a good supply of reserves. And I think in these sectors we will see difficulties next year," he said. In this regard, the bank does not plan to lower the cost of risk for 2027, on the contrary, to increase it.
Graf added that in terms of difficulties, 2027 will be a "record". "By 2029 the situation will normalize. We believe we will enter [in 2029] a risk premium of around 1%," Graf concluded.