What are we watching on November 9th?
Moscow Stock Exchange Index.
The Moscow stock market index fell by 1.15% during the last week. However, during the week there was a 4% drop and a quick redemption of a deep pull. "In terms of technology, it's encouraging, and 2,500 points is again in focus. Fundamentally, much will depend on early geopolitical signals from the UAE,” the BCS noted.
After a decline due to oil, the Moscow stock index partially recovered, but it is too early to talk about a complete turnaround," writes Yaroslav Kabkov, strategy director at Finam Financial Group. Technically, the market has once again approached an important resistance around 2,500 points. Failure to overcome the resistance will create conditions for another wave of profit taking.
In the coming week, the Russian market will probably continue to trade in a state of heightened sensitivity to news. The main mistake is to take any increase in the index as the beginning of a full bullish trend. The Russian market still remains a market of events, and not of fundamental assessments, Finam believes.
Russian currency.
On Friday, November 6, the ruble weakened against the yuan. The yuan rate increased by 0.5% compared to the level of the previous working day, to ₽12.2825. USDRUB_TOM fell by 0.15% to ₽82.1775.
Starting Monday, the Bank of Russia will increase purchases of currencies in the market. From November 9 to December 4, the Ministry of Finance will purchase currency and gold within the overall budget at 15.6 billion ₽ per day. In addition, the Central Bank of Russia sells 0.58 billion ₽ worth of currency every day. Thus, net purchases by the monetary authorities will amount to 15.02 billion ₽ per day compared to 12.12 billion ₽ a month earlier.
The volume of purchases in foreign currency in November is significantly higher than the previous volumes and can create additional demand for foreign currency, said Yaroslav Kabakov, strategy manager at Finam. In the context of falling oil prices and deteriorating export revenues, the factor of budgetary transactions may increase the pressure on the ruble.
inflation.