In Metaculus' annual prediction tournament, first and second place have now been taken by AI. It seems that forecasters can only hang with mathematicians. Hundreds of participants predicted the results of the problems expected to be solved by September. Will every US state or EU state introduce restrictions on building data centers? Will the hantavirus outbreak affect at least five people who were not traveling on the MV Hondius? How much will Brent oil cost? Participants were scored according to how much their prediction deviated from the actual answer. Those who stayed closest to the truth the most got the most points.

In Metaculus' annual prediction tournament, first and second place have now been taken by AI. It seems that forecasters can only hang with mathematicians. Hundreds of participants predicted the results of the problems expected to be solved by September. Will every US state or EU state introduce restrictions on building data centers? Will the hantavirus outbreak affect at least five people who were not traveling on the MV Hondius? How much will Brent oil cost? Participants were scored according to how much their prediction deviated from the actual answer. Those who stayed closest to the truth the most got the most points.