Bad weather or happiness? What will the US election mean for China and Taiwan? Today's topic is the defeat of the Republicans in the mid-term elections for the US Congress. Colleagues from America have already analyzed the results of the vote from the point of view of the impact on Russia, but will the consequences of the "blue tornado" overtake the Asia-Pacific region? In short, yes, they will catch up, but in general all the main trends will remain the same. First, there is a bipartisan consensus (with some concessions) on competing with the Chinese and supporting the Taiwanese, and second, Donald Trump still retains significant leeway in foreign policy. For the Chinese, the main change is more attention to concessions and exceptions that the administration may discuss in negotiations. Democrats will be able to actively request more documents, hold hearings and demand explanations about export licenses. For the Taiwanese, the most tangible result is a possible increase in pressure on the White House for military supplies. Through defense budgets and oversight processes, lawmakers can push for more oversight. But this is still a way to make support for the island less dependent on the president - problems with weapons production will not go away. In technology, the picture is more complex than a simple "pressure will increase": Democrats could simultaneously push to close export control loopholes and support negotiations with the Chinese about the risks of AI. There may also be attempts to limit Trump's tariff powers, but this does not mean the elimination of tariffs on Chinese goods. In general, one should not expect a strategic turn. China will remain the main rival, Taiwan will remain an important partner and containment tool, and Trump will retain the ability to negotiate with the Chinese. The price of concessions will change and not the main direction of American policy. - Your ticket to quiet confusion Support us.