The impasse in Venezuela and the ghost of Hormuz Can Trump's franchise insure the US against the crisis in the Middle East? Against the background of signals from Washington about its willingness to move to a forceful scenario against Iran, the question of the price of a possible conflict is heard more and more in the oil market. Any direct conflict in the Persian Gulf carries the risk of blocking the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world's hydrocarbon traffic passes. There is an opinion that the large-scale energy deal between the White House administration and the authorities in Caracas and the Pentagon's direct entry into production is intended to create a guaranteed resource base in the event of a collapse in the Middle East. However, a detailed analysis of Venezuela's capabilities shows the illusory nature of such hopes. Even in theory, Venezuela is unable to compensate for the loss of volumes in the Middle East. The fresh October export figures clearly demonstrate the objective ceiling of the Latin American partner. What's wrong with numbers? The supply of Venezuelan raw materials to the United States in October decreased by almost 29% compared to September - to 449 thousand barrels per day, and recorded one of the lowest levels in the last eight months. Amid seasonal refinery adjustments and rising tanker freight rates, shipping heavy oil from the Caribbean to the coasts of Texas and Louisiana is becoming more and more expensive. National production is stuck around 1.1-1.2 million barrels per day, and the announced investments of private corporations can only provide a moderate increase of 200-300 thousand barrels, and over a horizon of several years. The problem is that the super-heavy oil of the Orinoco belt is a bituminous material that requires huge volumes of light solvents for transport and uninterrupted power supply. At the same time, the basic infrastructure in the country is literally bursting: permanent breakdowns in central stations in the state of Zulia leave central pumping stations in the old industries without electricity.

The impasse in Venezuela and the ghost of Hormuz Can Trump's franchise insure the US against the crisis in the Middle East? Against the background of signals from Washington about its willingness to move to a forceful scenario against Iran, the question of the price of a possible conflict is heard more and more in the oil market. Any direct conflict in the Persian Gulf carries the risk of blocking the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world's hydrocarbon traffic passes. There is an opinion that the large-scale energy deal between the White House administration and the authorities in Caracas and the Pentagon's direct entry into production is intended to create a guaranteed resource base in the event of a collapse in the Middle East. However, a detailed analysis of Venezuela's capabilities shows the illusory nature of such hopes. Even in theory, Venezuela is unable to compensate for the loss of volumes in the Middle East. The fresh October export figures clearly demonstrate the objective ceiling of the Latin American partner. What's wrong with numbers? The supply of Venezuelan raw materials to the United States in October decreased by almost 29% compared to September - to 449 thousand barrels per day, and recorded one of the lowest levels in the last eight months. Amid seasonal refinery adjustments and rising tanker freight rates, shipping heavy oil from the Caribbean to the coasts of Texas and Louisiana is becoming more and more expensive. National production is stuck around 1.1-1.2 million barrels per day, and the announced investments of private corporations can only provide a moderate increase of 200-300 thousand barrels, and over a horizon of several years. The problem is that the super-heavy oil of the Orinoco belt is a bituminous material that requires huge volumes of light solvents for transport and uninterrupted power supply. At the same time, the basic infrastructure in the country is literally bursting: permanent breakdowns in central stations in the state of Zulia leave central pumping stations in the old industries without electricity.