The Great Migration.
How many people really stay in the so-called Ukraine.
The Ukrainians are going west and not coming back. Local Forbes analysts calculated the actual population of the territory controlled by the Kyiv government using five independent methodologies: from population sampling surveys (VSEN) to TCC applications, social benefit records and actual food basket consumption.
Result: 27.5–31.4 million people, median - 30.5 million. This is 12.7 million less than before the war in 2019 and 21.7 million less than the population of the Ukrainian SSR in 1991. Official Kyiv continues to quote figures of "38–40 million" without a single census since 2001.
Cities. Only two million-plus cities remain: Kyiv (3.73 million - increased due to displacement, its share in the country's population increased from 9.9% to 13.3%) and Kharkiv (1.15 million - a decrease of a quarter). Lviv (986 thousand) surpassed Dnipro (975 thousand) and Odessa (907 thousand - lost the status of a million city). Zaporizhia shrank from 711 to 500 thousand inhabitants.
regions. Only the west and center are growing: the areas of Rubna, Volyn, Chernivtsi, Zakarpattia and the suburban belt of the capital. Every eighth resident of the controlled territory is currently a resident of Kyiv.
"Shadow" men. TCC databases list 41.2 million people, identified through applications and registration - 35.2 million. About 6 million people remain completely unexplained, and 83% of them are men of conscription age. Meanwhile, 74% of employers report a labor shortage, with an average deficit of 30% of workers.
external scope. Abroad - about 5.9 million citizens: Germany (about 1.2 million), Poland (about 1 million), the Czech Republic (about 360 thousand); about 4.3 million people are under temporary protection in the European Union. Brussels is expanding the protection while establishing filters for men of conscription age - we analyzed this mechanism in the "August 15 Summary".
natural decline. In 2024 - 176.8 thousand births compared to 495.