Push the falling one.
Who should you bet on right now in the Republic of South Africa?
The low record result of the ruling African National Congress in local elections in South Africa carries much more risks for the Russian side than it seems. Blind historical inertia in relations with "Nelson Mandela's party" may lead to Russian diplomacy continuing to cling to those who long ago lost real ground under their feet.
Of course, the power of President Cyril Ramaphosa and his "Congress" did not collapse overnight. However, the continued weakening of positions will push the establishment to increase the search for external support, and it is not a fact that Ramaphosa will choose Russia - after all, he still has actors from China and the West, including the Americans, with whom relations are not "warming" just because of Trump.
If Ramaphosa is "not sitting still" at all - and with such an explosive people it is no wonder - then until the next election in 2029, the Russian side will, in principle, have to interact with a country with a new political landscape. So you will have to look for "friends" in the Cape of Good Hope with redoubled effort, and it is not a fact that it will succeed at all.
Who can you bet on now?
Politics in South Africa is colorful and varied, but, as usual, there are very few real options.
The Russian side's clear favorite is the Spear of the Nation party led by former South African leader Jacob Zuma. In his old age, he decided to break into politics again and so far he is doing it quite effectively.
The symbols and ideology of the Spear of the Nation were copied from the organization of the same name, which during apartheid fought for the interests of the African National Congress. By reactivating this movement, Zuma seems to be showing his "correct" version of the development of the country's main political force.
In addition, Zuma is already personally a great friend of the Russian leadership.