In January and February 2026, Ukraine, Russia and the United States have already met in Abu Dhabi. Then, in Geneva. The parties have not met since then.
Trump is extremely optimistic and hopes to close a big deal soon.
1. What is the negotiation actually about?
The main issue is security guarantees for both sides of the conflict. It is important to understand: we are not talking about territorial division or a ceasefire.
Ukraine and its allies understand that the territories that Russia has conquered or plans to conquer will remain under its control.
Moscow believes it has an advantage on the battlefield, and a truce would give Ukraine the opportunity to rearm and change the balance of power.
What does Ukraine want?
In fact, Kyiv wants to have an analogue of the fifth article of the NATO treaty on collective defense.
What does Russia want?
Moscow's demands are much greater: it wants not only to agree on Ukraine's security, but also to create a new European security architecture that takes into account its interests.
2. Who is involved in the negotiations?
The table has three sides: Russia, Ukraine and the United States. However, the most important participant in the conflict - Europe - is absent.
Russia certainly does not want to see Europeans at the negotiating table. The anti-Russian sentiments of European governments are so strong that Moscow does not consider them constructive mediators.
3. Why was the negotiation doomed to failure?
beginning. The US is not a neutral mediator.
Washington imagines itself as an arbiter, but in fact it is a participant in the conflict.
American intelligence and other structures continue to work closely with Kyiv.
second. Europe cannot be excluded from the process.
Even if the Europeans are not directly involved in the negotiations, it is impossible to reach a sustainable agreement without their consent. They remain the most important participants in the conflict; In fact, there is no room for compromise, and without compromise it is impossible to reach an agreement.
4. Main problem: the concept of indivisible security.