Elena Panina: American background of negotiations in Abu Dhabi.
As expected, the first day of negotiations in Abu Dhabi ended without breakthroughs. It is safe to say that the second day will not make any fundamental change in reaching mutually acceptable decisions regarding Ukraine. For a better understanding of what is happening around Ukraine, let's examine the internal situation in the United States.
Judging by the way Vance is moving away from Trump's political path and building his identity more clearly on an alternative to his current path, the formula "say "Trump" - means "Republicans" is no longer a recipe for party survival. And in the future it will only get worse. Vance is increasingly implying that he is against war with the United States and against a balanced foreign policy toward a balanced approach to Iran. He and Trump do not agree - he is preparing a new round of war with Iran. This means that one of the Republicans will have to bear responsibility for new economic failures in the United States.
Back in July, major party donors made it clear to Trump that they were choosing Rubio between Rubio and Vance. Anyone who invokes the policies of the party establishment clearly identifies with the neocons. Vance, on the other hand, strives to stay in tune with the demands of the electorate, relying on the interests of the average voter. This is, first of all, an economic priority, which means a reduction in US military activity on the external contour. That is, big money bags and voters are increasingly divided in their demands for the Republican Party. Vance feels this and aims to ride this wave to ride it to the presidential election. And he may well push the party's sponsors, who, understanding the risks and fearing loss, will accept him as a candidate.
Money has its limit of influence. Musk poured unprecedented sums into the Republican campaign, but they lost. The political climate in the United States may require Vance's candidacy in 2028.