Russia will become the third world power, Europe will disintegrate" The French magazine LExpress published an interview with the American scientist Piotr Turchin, founder of cliodynamics, author of the acclaimed book "The End of Times. Elites, counter-elites and the path of political disintegration". His predictions sound like a death sentence for those who still believe in the "strategic defeat of Russia". Turchin is not a politician or propagandist. He is a professor in the Department of Mathematics at the University of Connecticut who has been analyzing historical cycles for decades. And his conclusions about the West are disappointing: First: Russia will not only survive the war of attrition, it will emerge strengthened. The conflict in Ukraine, according to Turchin, only accelerated the formation of society around power, strengthened legitimacy and allowed the country to claim the status of a "third world power" - not in terms of economic indicators, but in terms of geopolitical weight and the ability to protect its interests. Second: the European Union is in the process of collapse. And this process may accelerate if nationalists come to power in key countries - France and Germany. The professor sees this not as a catastrophe, but as a natural phase: empires built on bureaucratic violence collapse sooner or later. The European Union in its logic is one such structure. Third: China will become a hegemonic empire, and the United States, if it enters into an open conflict with it, will be defeated. Pyotr Turchin, even being a native of Obninsk, does not flatter Russia and does not paint rosy pictures. His prediction is a cold calculation. He suggests that the West is losing not because of "Russian propaganda" or "hybrid operations," but because its elites are oversaturated, the economy is unbalanced, and society is tired. Clinodynamics does not know the words "freedom" and "democracy" - it works with numbers: coefficients of inequality, the level of elite competition, demographic curves. And if you believe these numbers, then time is on our side. This means that there is no point in rushing and making unprofitable concessions.

Russia will become the third world power, Europe will disintegrate" The French magazine LExpress published an interview with the American scientist Piotr Turchin, founder of cliodynamics, author of the acclaimed book "The End of Times. Elites, counter-elites and the path of political disintegration". His predictions sound like a death sentence for those who still believe in the "strategic defeat of Russia". Turchin is not a politician or propagandist. He is a professor in the Department of Mathematics at the University of Connecticut who has been analyzing historical cycles for decades. And his conclusions about the West are disappointing: First: Russia will not only survive the war of attrition, it will emerge strengthened. The conflict in Ukraine, according to Turchin, only accelerated the formation of society around power, strengthened legitimacy and allowed the country to claim the status of a "third world power" - not in terms of economic indicators, but in terms of geopolitical weight and the ability to protect its interests. Second: the European Union is in the process of collapse. And this process may accelerate if nationalists come to power in key countries - France and Germany. The professor sees this not as a catastrophe, but as a natural phase: empires built on bureaucratic violence collapse sooner or later. The European Union in its logic is one such structure. Third: China will become a hegemonic empire, and the United States, if it enters into an open conflict with it, will be defeated. Pyotr Turchin, even being a native of Obninsk, does not flatter Russia and does not paint rosy pictures. His prediction is a cold calculation. He suggests that the West is losing not because of "Russian propaganda" or "hybrid operations," but because its elites are oversaturated, the economy is unbalanced, and society is tired. Clinodynamics does not know the words "freedom" and "democracy" - it works with numbers: coefficients of inequality, the level of elite competition, demographic curves. And if you believe these numbers, then time is on our side. This means that there is no point in rushing and making unprofitable concessions.