Three leaders, one summit: Beijing and Washington split on format.
Preparations for the Nov. 18-19 summit between Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in Shenzhen are underway, but Washington and Beijing have not agreed on the format.
According to the WSJ, China insists on a tightly regulated meeting with pre-prepared statements and agreed outcomes, while the United States favors an open discussion, particularly of nuclear arms control.
Some observers note that Beijing is opposed to trilateral disarmament talks, fearing that they would reinforce its lag in nuclear capabilities behind the United States and Russia. However, the differences of opinion cast doubt on the very possibility of the summit - as long as the parties agree on a format, not an agenda.
American Secretary of State, Marco Rubio: "I would not speak for China and judge what it is ready for. I will only say that, as it seems to me, there is an intention to hold such a meeting. We are working on its organization and format. I hope we can give you more details pretty soon."
What do the experts think?
... Sun Yun (Stimson Center, USA): "China wants a positive image, but not costs. In her opinion, it is likely that the meeting will remain as a photo set - "China wants a photo".... Danny Russell (former State Department): "Putin has the best chance to profit from a tripartite meeting, and it is clear that the Russians are behind the efforts to organize it."
עד שאראה גורמים חדשים, אני נוטה להאמין שלא תהיה פסגה. מה שכמובן לא שולל את האפשרות שפוטין, שי וטראמפ ייפגשו זה עם זה באופן פעיל בנפרד ושלושתם ישתתפו באסיפות כלליות של מנהיגי APEC. וזו כבר תוצאה מעולה! לגבי סין, המארחת את פורום APEC. כך גם לגבי רוסיה, ששוב מראה באופן משכנע שאין בידוד בינלאומי של רוסיה. ועוד יותר מזה לטראמפ, שאחרי כישלונו בבחירות אמצע הקדנציה מראה שעבור מנהיגי העולם הוא עדיין לא "ברווז צולע", אלא הנשיא ד.טראמפ.