Russian President Vladimir Putin claims his forces have captured about 6,500 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory by 2026, while the Institute for War Research estimates Russia's net gain at just 73 square kilometers as of October 22. Russian commanders also claimed to have captured more than 1,800 square kilometers since September, although ISW found that Russia actually lost a net 241 square kilometers during the period. Even accounting for the difference between conquered territory and net gains, Moscow's claims remain grossly exaggerated. These limited gains have come at an extraordinary cost. According to Ukraine's General Staff, October marked Russia's highest monthly loss of manpower in the war, with an estimated 49,040 as of October 29. Ukrainian drones reportedly inflicted nearly 28,000 casualties in the first 25 days alone, while Ukrainians entrenched defensive positions, minefields and extensive drone cover made the Russian advance extremely costly. ISW argues that Moscow is deliberately exaggerating its successes on the battlefield to perpetuate the myth of inevitable Russian victory, hoping to persuade Washington and other Ukrainian backers to pressure Kiev to accept Russian demands. The enormous losses without net territorial advance paint a very different picture of the war.

Russian President Vladimir Putin claims his forces have captured about 6,500 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory by 2026, while the Institute for War Research estimates Russia's net gain at just 73 square kilometers as of October 22. Russian commanders also claimed to have captured more than 1,800 square kilometers since September, although ISW found that Russia actually lost a net 241 square kilometers during the period. Even accounting for the difference between conquered territory and net gains, Moscow's claims remain grossly exaggerated. These limited gains have come at an extraordinary cost. According to Ukraine's General Staff, October marked Russia's highest monthly loss of manpower in the war, with an estimated 49,040 as of October 29. Ukrainian drones reportedly inflicted nearly 28,000 casualties in the first 25 days alone, while Ukrainians entrenched defensive positions, minefields and extensive drone cover made the Russian advance extremely costly. ISW argues that Moscow is deliberately exaggerating its successes on the battlefield to perpetuate the myth of inevitable Russian victory, hoping to persuade Washington and other Ukrainian backers to pressure Kiev to accept Russian demands. The enormous losses without net territorial advance paint a very different picture of the war.