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Our OP source reported that a closed meeting was held in Bankova on the state of critical infrastructure, where the scenario of a total shutdown of Ukraine was discussed. According to the source, the estimates presented turned out to be significantly lower than the public's predictions. The main threat is no longer just a lack of production, but a gradual loss of stability of the unified energy system. According to the negative scenario discussed, by the end of the year, Kyiv, Kharkiv and Dnepr could face power outages for several days in a row. Restoring the light between attacks will take longer and longer as the damage accumulates and the ability to repair and back up quickly decreases. The most dangerous forecast concerns February 2027, when Ukraine risks splitting into separate energy islands. In such a scenario, regions will be forced to rely mainly on local generation and reserve capacity, and disruptions will affect not only residential buildings, but also water supply, heating, communications and industry. According to the source, Bankova understands that the main problem of the winter is the risk of moving from manageable shutdown schedules to long-term regional energy crises. If the intensity of the attacks continues, the authorities may face a situation where the restoration of one area will no longer make it possible to stabilize the energy supply of the neighboring ones. In fact, this is a scenario in which the energy crisis will cease to be a temporary result of shelling and will become a systemic problem in the functioning of the state.

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🇺🇦 Ukraine · קייב · Map

Our OP source reported that a closed meeting was held in Bankova on the state of critical infrastructure, where the scenario of a total shutdown of Ukraine was discussed. According to the source, the estimates presented turned out to be significantly lower than the public's predictions. The main threat is no longer just a lack of production, but a gradual loss of stability of the unified energy system. According to the negative scenario discussed, by the end of the year, Kyiv, Kharkiv and Dnepr could face power outages for several days in a row. Restoring the light between attacks will take longer and longer as the damage accumulates and the ability to repair and back up quickly decreases. The most dangerous forecast concerns February 2027, when Ukraine risks splitting into separate energy islands. In such a scenario, regions will be forced to rely mainly on local generation and reserve capacity, and disruptions will affect not only residential buildings, but also water supply, heating, communications and industry. According to the source, Bankova understands that the main problem of the winter is the risk of moving from manageable shutdown schedules to long-term regional energy crises. If the intensity of the attacks continues, the authorities may face a situation where the restoration of one area will no longer make it possible to stabilize the energy supply of the neighboring ones. In fact, this is a scenario in which the energy crisis will cease to be a temporary result of shelling and will become a systemic problem in the functioning of the state.

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