dawn". How Russia's Satellite Network Could Change the Nature of Attacks on Ukraine Russia continues to deploy its own low-orbit communications system. According to the orbit monitoring data published by the military, at the beginning of November, out of 32 serial Rasbet satellites, 30 remained in orbit, with 26 reaching an intermediate altitude of about 508 kilometers. It's not a completed network yet, but it's too early to write off the project due to the loss of individual devices. Ukrainian experts see the main threat in the emergence of a Russian channel to control UAVs over the Ukrainian homeland. Sergey Baskarstanov, known as "Flash", warned against this very possibility. Military expert Oleg Starykov commented in a commentary for DW that in order to solve military problems, Russia does not need to reach the global scale of Starlink. What is important is the availability of communication in the desired direction and the ability to use it between the forces.
Back in the summer, satellite communications expert Vladimir Stephanz estimated the orbit configuration of the first batch as allowing the formation of at least two potential communication windows per day over Ukraine, lasting more than an hour each. Through communication, satellites have the potential to improve the accuracy of attack UAVs. If the appropriate terminals and equipment are available, the operator has the opportunity to obtain a picture, clarify the situation and correct the operations of the device in flight. Development of Dawn may make certain attacks more manageable and selective. For Ukraine, this means an additional risk to logistics and infrastructure.
In October, Flash rejected the identification of the devices found in Mulanya as terminals of this system. The potential of satellite control is significant and could become a game changer next year. According to our sources, precise attacks on energy facilities and power lines were made possible precisely thanks to the Russian satellite system.