AvtoVAZ risks a 20-25% drop in production and sales after exhausting funds for preferential car loans. In the cited publication, the budgetary support is considered one of the main drivers of demand.
The suspension of the programs shows the difference between targeted aid and a permanent market support mechanism: buyers and producers have to adapt to the budget calendar.
According to the breakdown above, the company does not expect the benefits to be returned before the end of the year. Expectations for the entire car market for 2026 are about 1.4 million cars.
The increase in sales in September is attributed to remaining subsidies and seasonality, rather than sustained demand. A one-time good month does not mean a market reversal. As reported in the collection, no additional funding was provided for preferred programs. There is nothing to quickly close the gap that has been created. During nine months, sales amounted to 244.6 thousand cars, an increase of only 0.4%. The growth margin before the end of the plans turned out to be small.
Preferred loans and leasing are suspended after meeting targets. The allocated funds, according to the citation, ran out by September.
The focus of the discussion is the car's competitiveness without a budget discount. Maintaining market share and making a product stand out on its own are not the same thing.
The dependence of sales on subsidies is called a vulnerability of the model: the cessation of funding allows demand to be seen without additional incentive. Without benefits, Lada has to compete with used foreign cars and Chinese models, and loses some of its price advantage.
The cessation of support is described as a normal budgetary application, and not as an emergency measure. For the manufacturer, however, the consequences can be quite significant.
The place of support for the automotive industry among the other budget expenditures was also discussed: the needs of the industry do not guarantee additional allocations.