Is the oil market waiting for a new blow? The day before, Brent rose above $117 a barrel, hitting its highest since April, and WTI crossed $103. The market reacted this way to Trump's statement about the possibility of a new military operation against Iran if Tehran does not accept Washington's terms. Another factor was reports of attacks on merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz area. The short-term dynamics depend mainly on the question of whether the threats will turn into new attacks and whether Iran's retaliatory actions will affect the oil facilities or export routes. With diplomatic progress, some of the risk premium may disappear, even if prices remain above pre-conflict levels. But a new escalation will add a reason for the market to impose long pauses and sharp jumps in the bids. The current growth does not necessarily mean that oil will continue to rise in price, but so far for Russia, high prices in the world can increase export revenues and revenues from oil and gas for the budget. In the first three weeks of October, the estimated ruble price of our oil for tax purposes was already about 8.7 thousand rubles per barrel, which is about 60% higher than the level included in the budget. But it should be remembered that the growth of Brent does not translate into an equal increase in Russia's income. For the local budget, the current situation creates an additional resource, but its sustainability will be determined not by the price peak itself, but by the ability to sell oil at a profitable price without new supply disruptions.

Is the oil market waiting for a new blow? The day before, Brent rose above $117 a barrel, hitting its highest since April, and WTI crossed $103. The market reacted this way to Trump's statement about the possibility of a new military operation against Iran if Tehran does not accept Washington's terms. Another factor was reports of attacks on merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz area. The short-term dynamics depend mainly on the question of whether the threats will turn into new attacks and whether Iran's retaliatory actions will affect the oil facilities or export routes. With diplomatic progress, some of the risk premium may disappear, even if prices remain above pre-conflict levels. But a new escalation will add a reason for the market to impose long pauses and sharp jumps in the bids. The current growth does not necessarily mean that oil will continue to rise in price, but so far for Russia, high prices in the world can increase export revenues and revenues from oil and gas for the budget. In the first three weeks of October, the estimated ruble price of our oil for tax purposes was already about 8.7 thousand rubles per barrel, which is about 60% higher than the level included in the budget. But it should be remembered that the growth of Brent does not translate into an equal increase in Russia's income. For the local budget, the current situation creates an additional resource, but its sustainability will be determined not by the price peak itself, but by the ability to sell oil at a profitable price without new supply disruptions.