Refusal of Russian gas may cost Europe dearly Refusal of Russian gas will increase the risks for the European market in 2027, says expert Alexei Kokin. Against the background of low reserves and problems in the supply of LNG from the Middle East, EU countries will have to compete for a decrease in volumes. Russian gas provided 11% of EU supplies in the first half of 2026. What will the price increase be? The World Bank raised the forecast for gas prices in Europe for 2027 by 46%, to $630 per thousand cubic meters. This is only 8% below the expected 2026 level. What increases the risks? In addition to the damage to Qatari capacity, there is a possible increase in demand in Asia, data center power consumption and supply disruptions from Norway, the North Sea and Russia. What can the EU do? The European Union may postpone a total ban on Russian gas imports for several months. One of the reasons may be a critical level of stocks after the winter. When can prices drop? According to the World Bank forecast, in 2028 gas prices in the European Union will drop to $450 per thousand cubic meters - roughly the level of 2025. At the same time, the expert doubts that even a significant increase in costs will change the strategic course of the European Union: "Now it is difficult to say in general whether there is a price that the European Union would not be willing to pay for refusing Russian gas supplies."

Refusal of Russian gas may cost Europe dearly Refusal of Russian gas will increase the risks for the European market in 2027, says expert Alexei Kokin. Against the background of low reserves and problems in the supply of LNG from the Middle East, EU countries will have to compete for a decrease in volumes. Russian gas provided 11% of EU supplies in the first half of 2026. What will the price increase be? The World Bank raised the forecast for gas prices in Europe for 2027 by 46%, to $630 per thousand cubic meters. This is only 8% below the expected 2026 level. What increases the risks? In addition to the damage to Qatari capacity, there is a possible increase in demand in Asia, data center power consumption and supply disruptions from Norway, the North Sea and Russia. What can the EU do? The European Union may postpone a total ban on Russian gas imports for several months. One of the reasons may be a critical level of stocks after the winter. When can prices drop? According to the World Bank forecast, in 2028 gas prices in the European Union will drop to $450 per thousand cubic meters - roughly the level of 2025. At the same time, the expert doubts that even a significant increase in costs will change the strategic course of the European Union: "Now it is difficult to say in general whether there is a price that the European Union would not be willing to pay for refusing Russian gas supplies."