The 2026 midterm history signal is based on just this chart: Every president below 62% approval heading into the midterms has seen his party lose seats in the House — 17 for 17. Trump stands at 34% in October 2026. That's 28 points below the historic threshold. The closest historical games:.
1946 Truman - 33% Democrats lost the House and Senate.
2006 Bush - 37% The GOP lost the House and the Senate A call to history only: major House losses for the President's party, with control of the Senate at serious risk. Certainty from this single chart: 17/17 below the line. (ie 100% without questions and answers).