Solonikov: Parpanchikov, Osipov, Kondratiev, Avdaev: who has a higher risk of rotation The Agency for Political and Economic Communication (APEC) has published a forecast about the possible resignation of the governors. Artur Perpchikov, Alexander Osipov, Venyamin Kondratiev and Alexander Abdeev were included in the group with a higher than average likelihood of resigning. Dmitry Solonikov, political scientist: There are two periods of change of governors: autumn (from the end of September to the beginning of November, the beginning of the heating season) and spring (from April to the end of May or the beginning of June, before the elections). Outside of these periods, the resignation is often due to exceptional circumstances. There is no stable relationship between the number of spring and autumn replacements: the decision is made by the head of state based on the data provided to him. One of the reasons for the governors' assessment will be the results of the federal election. Low voter turnout and weak support for the party in power increase manpower risks. This concerns Perpchikov, whose term ends in 2027. However, his resignation is not a foregone conclusion: the economy and his affiliation with an influential federal group are taken into account. I don't see significant economic problems in Karelia, and the governor has serious federal support. His departure will require a reconciliation of interests and will be seen as a sign of the weakening of this group. Osipov does not have a similar center of influence, and the situation in the Trans-Baikal territory is negative. There are risks, but the absence of elections next year may help preserve his status. Kondratiev was re-elected last year with the support of the president. No new circumstances arose in the Krasnodar region: criminal activity and tensions existed before. There are reasons for personal decisions, but you need to understand why a replacement is needed now and who the successor will be. In the Vladimir region, the upcoming elections increase the likelihood of rotation, but do not necessarily require it in themselves.

Solonikov: Parpanchikov, Osipov, Kondratiev, Avdaev: who has a higher risk of rotation The Agency for Political and Economic Communication (APEC) has published a forecast about the possible resignation of the governors. Artur Perpchikov, Alexander Osipov, Venyamin Kondratiev and Alexander Abdeev were included in the group with a higher than average likelihood of resigning. Dmitry Solonikov, political scientist: There are two periods of change of governors: autumn (from the end of September to the beginning of November, the beginning of the heating season) and spring (from April to the end of May or the beginning of June, before the elections). Outside of these periods, the resignation is often due to exceptional circumstances. There is no stable relationship between the number of spring and autumn replacements: the decision is made by the head of state based on the data provided to him. One of the reasons for the governors' assessment will be the results of the federal election. Low voter turnout and weak support for the party in power increase manpower risks. This concerns Perpchikov, whose term ends in 2027. However, his resignation is not a foregone conclusion: the economy and his affiliation with an influential federal group are taken into account. I don't see significant economic problems in Karelia, and the governor has serious federal support. His departure will require a reconciliation of interests and will be seen as a sign of the weakening of this group. Osipov does not have a similar center of influence, and the situation in the Trans-Baikal territory is negative. There are risks, but the absence of elections next year may help preserve his status. Kondratiev was re-elected last year with the support of the president. No new circumstances arose in the Krasnodar region: criminal activity and tensions existed before. There are reasons for personal decisions, but you need to understand why a replacement is needed now and who the successor will be. In the Vladimir region, the upcoming elections increase the likelihood of rotation, but do not necessarily require it in themselves.