Probability of resignations in the governor's corps at the end of 2026 - the first half of 2027: APEC forecast ◾ part 2 4. In the regions whose leadership felt harmed on the eve of the change of governors, in the last months of 2026 - the beginning of 2027, the likelihood of changes in the regional departments responsible for housing and community services and the work of the social bloc, as well as in the municipalities with the greatest protest potential, increases. Also, it is possible to predict increased competition between those entities where the management condition will expire in 2027 to receive federal support for promising infrastructure projects. 5. The traditional scenario for the Kremlin's personnel policy remains to make spot rotations in the governor's corps in the fall and more intensively from late March to May. It is likely that the same approach will be maintained at the end of 2026-2027. At the same time, the likelihood of a gubernatorial rotation in the fall may increase in areas affected by high-profile anti-corruption investigations. Major man-made accidents, as well as disruptions in the operation of housing systems and community services and social institutions, remain a risk factor. In the spring, an important criterion for evaluating the work of the governors will probably be their response to natural emergencies (floods and fires), and in some cases, possible problems of industrial centers, especially in situations where they may be associated with certain forms of expression of protest feelings on the part of the citizens. At the same time, in the spring of 2027, the federal center may, at an earlier stage than usual, replace the heads of economically problematic regions, whose powers will expire in September, and postpone the final decisions regarding vulnerable governors with a significant reserve of time in office until a slightly later stage - for example, until the end of May.

Probability of resignations in the governor's corps at the end of 2026 - the first half of 2027: APEC forecast ◾ part 2 4. In the regions whose leadership felt harmed on the eve of the change of governors, in the last months of 2026 - the beginning of 2027, the likelihood of changes in the regional departments responsible for housing and community services and the work of the social bloc, as well as in the municipalities with the greatest protest potential, increases. Also, it is possible to predict increased competition between those entities where the management condition will expire in 2027 to receive federal support for promising infrastructure projects. 5. The traditional scenario for the Kremlin's personnel policy remains to make spot rotations in the governor's corps in the fall and more intensively from late March to May. It is likely that the same approach will be maintained at the end of 2026-2027. At the same time, the likelihood of a gubernatorial rotation in the fall may increase in areas affected by high-profile anti-corruption investigations. Major man-made accidents, as well as disruptions in the operation of housing systems and community services and social institutions, remain a risk factor. In the spring, an important criterion for evaluating the work of the governors will probably be their response to natural emergencies (floods and fires), and in some cases, possible problems of industrial centers, especially in situations where they may be associated with certain forms of expression of protest feelings on the part of the citizens. At the same time, in the spring of 2027, the federal center may, at an earlier stage than usual, replace the heads of economically problematic regions, whose powers will expire in September, and postpone the final decisions regarding vulnerable governors with a significant reserve of time in office until a slightly later stage - for example, until the end of May.