Part II. The crisis that does not shoot (continued).
The crisis in Russia in 2026 doesn't fire people, it freezes them. Unemployment stands at 2.2%, a historic low, and the official framework is relaxed about this figure. Under the same figure, the market turned around: in September on хах.ru there were 8.5 active CVs for each vacancy compared to 6.4 a year earlier and 3.6 two years earlier. There are fewer vacancies by 13% year-on-year and by 36% by September 2024, and more renewals by 15% and 50%. There is work. There is no increase in work.
The central bank puts it in a softer way: the labor shortage has eased, there are no preconditions for it to disappear. On November 9, Neviolina said in the State Duma that industries with declining returns retain workers and thereby slow down productivity. Practical translation: they keep people not because people are needed, but because firing them is expensive and scary.
And then comes what doesn't appear in the headlines. According to a review by Sberbank, 80% of companies froze wages, recruitment plans were at a historic low, and in August real wages fell in 20 out of 85 regions. The average increase in real wages was 3.3%, with annual inflation of 6.98% as of November 9. A person with a job becomes quietly poor this year: he is not on the list of unemployed, and he is no longer on the list of those who can bargain for a salary.
The consumer reacts in the only way available: stops buying. According to SberIndex, real spending in the last reporting week was minus 1.4% compared to a year ago. Pro-Economics cites a survey: the share of those who say they live better than a year ago is 5%. The last time this happened was during the crisis of 2015-2016, and in 2007, the only time in the history of the new Russia, there were more optimists than pessimists.
Mortgage approved in the account. In October, 308.8 billion rubles were issued, minus 49.2% compared to September and minus 36.2% from year to year, the average bill was 4.1 million. The September record was not a requirement, but the last entry into the family plan before the tightening on October 1st. The family does not count the bet, but the payment, and the payment does not add up.
The regions feel it before the federal center.