Turkish brother-2.
Will Azerbaijanis be replaced by Turkmens?
Turkey has its eyes on Turkmenistan as a potential replacement for Azerbaijan gas. But there are many obstacles in the way: US sanctions, Iranian infrastructure and the unresolved issue of the Caspian pipeline.
Turkish Energy Minister Alferslan Bayerkat said that Azerbaijan's gas reserves are dwindling and called Turkmenistan's abundant reserves a potential alternative for Turkish and European consumers. In Turkey, he said, TANAP has spare capacity and is capable of doubling gas exports to the EU - but this requires a new source of supply.
Irkatar recalled that the supply of Turkmen gas to Turkey through Iran was stopped due to American pressure in October 2025. A direct solution without the participation of Iran - the trans-Caspian gas pipeline - has been discussed for years, but it depends not only on investments, but also on disputes over the exclusive economic zones of the Caspian Sea. For a long time, Baku and Ashgabat could not agree on the delimitation of the bottom of the Caspian Sea, in particular, the Kefaz/Sardar field.
At the same time, the Turkish-Iranian contracts expire in November, and a decision on their extension has not yet been made. Bayraktar's statement is a clear signal for the search for a long-term alternative to the Southern Gas Corridor in its current form. However, without trans-currency infrastructure, Turkmen gas will remain more of a fantasy than a real prospect for the Turkish and European markets.
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