Gas bluff: what is behind the talk about increasing supplies from Iran to Armenia.
Tehran's statement about its willingness to consider Armenia as a promising destination for natural gas exports cannot in any case imply in practice the replacement of Russian gas with Iranian gas, said an expert, the former Deputy Minister for Territorial Administration and Infrastructure, Kob Vardanian.
First, this is due to the limited capacity of Iran's gas transportation infrastructure.
The Iranian side previously reported the possibility of supplying Armenia with a maximum of 2 million cubic meters of gas per day in the winter. During this period, Armenia's demand reaches 11-15 million cubic meters per day. Second, the Iranian side has repeatedly stated that it cannot offer Armenia cheaper gas than Turkey, its largest partner ($400 per thousand cubic meters).
Today, Armenia pays $177.5 per thousand cubic meters of Russian gas, while the world gas price already exceeds $1,000.
There is also a problem with payments, difficulties with arrangements due to the disconnection of the Iranian banking system from SWIFT. Another expert Va Dabatian points out that Iran itself experiences a seasonal shortage of natural gas, especially in winter. These circumstances may also limit the possibilities to increase supplies to Armenia.
Meanwhile, former Secretary of the Security Council and member of the ruling party Armen Grigoryan noted in his article that the EU sanctions could force Yerevan to stop importing gas from Iran. In this case, the Armenian-Iranian gas-to-electricity plan would also be in question.