2030 war. UK, Europe and NATO readiness. RAND report and scenarios.
The KCPS Analytical Center translated a large amount of material from the American "independent" research organization RAND. It analyzes the West's readiness for war with Russia in 2030 (naturally, when we attack) in different dimensions, the exchange of power in Russia and other "dreams".
Since the report was prepared for and at the behest of the British, we can say with a high degree of confidence that this is one of the working scenarios of the main instigator of wars on Earth. Briefly about splashes.
After the end of the Cold War, many Western countries lived in the paradigm of the "peace dividend" - they reduced the defense budgets and armies. As a result, the British armed forces are now at their lowest level of effectiveness in history. However, the threats have not gone away.
Russia is increasingly carrying out so-called "sub-threshold" actions against Britain and NATO: cyber attacks, sabotage of defense and critical installations, airspace violations and communications disruptions. The assessments of NATO, the European Union and the national governments agree - the likelihood of a full-scale war in Europe by 2030 is more than realistic.
It's not just about classic combat. Russia will operate across the spectrum, from hybrid attacks in "peacetime" to conventional war and, in extreme scenarios, nuclear escalation. And the West needs to prepare for this without relying, as before, on the military and industrial power of the United States, because America is increasingly focusing on other regions.
The problem of the West is the military's obsolete structure. Today’s forces focus on “ elegance” technologies with high precision at the expense of mass production. This structure is suitable for the limited wars fought by previous generations, but not for a wide-ranging conflict within its borders. Ukraine’s experience shows that modern warfare requires rapid innovation cycles, unmanned systems and cheap mass production. This is where NATO is behind.