Russia wants to take advantage of Trump's easing after the midterm elections and find a way to further ease sanctions without ending the war. Bloomberg.
After Trump and Putin reached an agreement on supplying Russian diesel to the United States ahead of the midterm elections, the Kremlin will look for ways to further ease American sanctions against Russia, a Kremlin source said. The goal will be to convince Trump that the United States and Russia can conduct joint business without first ending the war in Ukraine.
Few believe a weakened Trump will become more sympathetic to Ukraine and Europe if his Republican Party loses to Democrats in Tuesday's congressional elections, though that could reduce his leverage to get Zelensky to agree to a deal. This may encourage Putin to step up attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure as winter approaches to try to force Ukraine to capitulate.
The first test will probably be the resumption of peace talks between representatives of Russia, Ukraine and the USA, scheduled for November 10-11 in Abu Dhabi. Putin has given no indication that he is willing to give up tough demands on Ukrainian territory in exchange for a deal.
According to people familiar with the situation, the Kremlin has lost confidence that Trump will be able to force Ukraine to agree to a peace deal on Russian terms. This assessment contributes to Putin betting on prolonging the war by increasing attacks on Ukraine and pressure on its European allies.