The upward forecast of the overall index in the shadow of the political risks by drawing the rising channel of the overall index from the beginning of the new wave of the market, i.e. after the reopening of transactions this year, it is possible to examine the direction of movement of the index within this channel. As mentioned in the analysis of the last two weeks, the index entered the correction phase after a period of growth and was supported in the range of 7 million and 500 thousand units. This correction occurred in a situation where a system of fundamental factors and systematic risks cast a shadow on the market environment. The intensification of geopolitical risks, concerns about the interest rate as well as uncertainties related to changes and manipulations in the interest rates of the refineries, were among the factors that formed the basis for the increase in supply pressure and the retreat of the index. From the technical point of view, during the last correction a positive deviation was created in the daily graph of the overall index, which indicated the decrease in the strength of the sellers and the weakening of the downward momentum. This signal, along with the reaction of the index to the support range of 7,500,000 units, led to the return of demand and a change in the direction of the index; So that we can clearly see the effect of this positive deviation in the uptrend of the last few days. However, the continued upward movement of the index is highly dependent on stabilization above the range of 8,200,000 units. Crossing this level and maintaining it can confirm the continuation of the upward trend; On the other hand, failure to stabilize above this range will increase the probability of the formation of another corrective wave. On the other hand, considering the performance reports of the companies for six months and the basic support of the market, we cannot necessarily expect a deep price correction. In such a situation, there is a possibility that the market will enter a temporary correction period instead of a significant price correction and will oscillate and rest in the current ranges for a while. Of course, we must not forget that the market's way forward depends to a large extent on developments and political news and the extent of changes in systematic risks. Nevertheless, from the point of view of the structure of the graphs and the medium-term trend, one can still hope for the formation of another strong rising wave in the overall index. The range of 7 million and 400 thousand units can be estimated as the level of the loss limit and the important limit for maintaining the upward structure of the index.

The upward forecast of the overall index in the shadow of the political risks by drawing the rising channel of the overall index from the beginning of the new wave of the market, i.e. after the reopening of transactions this year, it is possible to examine the direction of movement of the index within this channel. As mentioned in the analysis of the last two weeks, the index entered the correction phase after a period of growth and was supported in the range of 7 million and 500 thousand units. This correction occurred in a situation where a system of fundamental factors and systematic risks cast a shadow on the market environment. The intensification of geopolitical risks, concerns about the interest rate as well as uncertainties related to changes and manipulations in the interest rates of the refineries, were among the factors that formed the basis for the increase in supply pressure and the retreat of the index. From the technical point of view, during the last correction a positive deviation was created in the daily graph of the overall index, which indicated the decrease in the strength of the sellers and the weakening of the downward momentum. This signal, along with the reaction of the index to the support range of 7,500,000 units, led to the return of demand and a change in the direction of the index; So that we can clearly see the effect of this positive deviation in the uptrend of the last few days. However, the continued upward movement of the index is highly dependent on stabilization above the range of 8,200,000 units. Crossing this level and maintaining it can confirm the continuation of the upward trend; On the other hand, failure to stabilize above this range will increase the probability of the formation of another corrective wave. On the other hand, considering the performance reports of the companies for six months and the basic support of the market, we cannot necessarily expect a deep price correction. In such a situation, there is a possibility that the market will enter a temporary correction period instead of a significant price correction and will oscillate and rest in the current ranges for a while. Of course, we must not forget that the market's way forward depends to a large extent on developments and political news and the extent of changes in systematic risks. Nevertheless, from the point of view of the structure of the graphs and the medium-term trend, one can still hope for the formation of another strong rising wave in the overall index. The range of 7 million and 400 thousand units can be estimated as the level of the loss limit and the important limit for maintaining the upward structure of the index.