Trilateral negotiations in the format of Russia-Ukraine-USA in Abu Dhabi have almost no chance of success, because the parties are not ready for real agreements.
Kyiv is still not ready to agree to abandon Donbass, as well as to the wide-ranging restrictions on sovereignty that Moscow has placed as a condition for ending the conflict since the negotiations in Istanbul in March-April 2022. Especially against the background of the stagnation of the offensive operations of the Russian army in the line of combat contact.
Moscow, in turn, believes that time is on the side and continues to destroy Ukrainian energy in the hope of a humanitarian collapse, while applying pressure on the fronts.
The Kremlin's agreement to resume negotiations is a tactical move aimed at preserving all the benefits that Donald Trump has provided to Moscow, while declaring his unwillingness to "anger Russia by preventing the rapid establishment of peace".
- Washington's unconscious but very effective embargo on the supply of interceptor missiles for Patriot systems to Kiev continues, allowing the Russian armed forces to destroy energy, infrastructure and Ukrainian military-industrial facilities that they could not reach in the last four years, and in case of urgent need, the US turns off Starlink and significantly reduces the attack of UAVar areas;.
- Trump blocks the implementation of the Graham-Blumenthal law to increase the sanctions pressure on Russia, which will lead to serious negative consequences; - Due to the US President's easing of sanctions on refined petroleum products as a result of the "diesel deal", Russian exports bring more income.
- Ukrainian society, against the background of the problems in the energy sector, is quickly becoming demoralized, especially by the spread of the narrative about the futility of resistance to Moscow in the conditions of the betrayal of the main ally of Kiev, which began to play along with Russia, and put pressure on Ukraine.