Henry Olsen in the "Washington Post" predicts a heavy defeat for the Republicans in the midterm elections and attributes it mainly to the position of Donald Trump. His approval rating is 38.8%, lower than any president on the eve of the midterms; Democrats lead the GOP in the overall House vote by 8.5 percentage points. The historical connection between a president's rating and a vote for his party gives the Republicans only 40.5-44.6%, and the Democrats an advantage of about 8.5-10 percentage points. Final forecast: Democrats win 235 seats in the House (+20) and 52 seats in the Senate (+5 - Alaska, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas; Kansas is close but will likely remain GOP). Olsen has a warning: If polls, including closed polls, underestimate Republicans, as they did in 2020, the picture will change. So the Democrats' advantage could be reduced to 5-7 percentage points, the House would go to them by a minimal margin, and the Senate would likely remain with the Republicans; The chances of the Democrats in Maine, Alaska, Michigan, Texas and Ohio will become fragile. But the analyst believes such a scenario is less likely than a "terrible" night for the GOP. Trump's main problem is not only his likely loss, but also the gap between his MAGA course and public opinion. Even a midterm defeat does not mean the end of the Trump era: Reagan, Clinton and Obama recovered from similar blows. But Trump needs to change the agenda — tackling real income, ending wars, the border and broader patriotism — or hand that task over to successors like Jay. Dee Vance and Marco Rubio. Otherwise, the party risks remaining in the minority in both houses under a weakened president.

Henry Olsen in the "Washington Post" predicts a heavy defeat for the Republicans in the midterm elections and attributes it mainly to the position of Donald Trump. His approval rating is 38.8%, lower than any president on the eve of the midterms; Democrats lead the GOP in the overall House vote by 8.5 percentage points. The historical connection between a president's rating and a vote for his party gives the Republicans only 40.5-44.6%, and the Democrats an advantage of about 8.5-10 percentage points. Final forecast: Democrats win 235 seats in the House (+20) and 52 seats in the Senate (+5 - Alaska, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas; Kansas is close but will likely remain GOP). Olsen has a warning: If polls, including closed polls, underestimate Republicans, as they did in 2020, the picture will change. So the Democrats' advantage could be reduced to 5-7 percentage points, the House would go to them by a minimal margin, and the Senate would likely remain with the Republicans; The chances of the Democrats in Maine, Alaska, Michigan, Texas and Ohio will become fragile. But the analyst believes such a scenario is less likely than a "terrible" night for the GOP. Trump's main problem is not only his likely loss, but also the gap between his MAGA course and public opinion. Even a midterm defeat does not mean the end of the Trump era: Reagan, Clinton and Obama recovered from similar blows. But Trump needs to change the agenda — tackling real income, ending wars, the border and broader patriotism — or hand that task over to successors like Jay. Dee Vance and Marco Rubio. Otherwise, the party risks remaining in the minority in both houses under a weakened president.